It’s the Odds, Stupid

Call it Dame Fortune, blind luck or any other reference to the Gods smiling favorably, but for the last six weeks, Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella has been playing the hottest hand in Major League Baseball.

You can give this latest string of Cubs kismet any name you like, but the one kind of luck it isn’t, is beginner’s. Because if I’ve learned nothing else from listening and reading Piniella’s comments over the last four months is that Lou knows things.

His assessments may not always be the most eloquent, and his reasons for doing things not always the most obvious, but Piniella has learned the glorious game of baseball well. And we the Chicago Cubs fans and the faithful have been the beneficiaries.

Take Piniella’s comments in today’s Chicago Sun-Times.

”If you come back from the All-Star break and said you win seven out of 10, you’d be pleased,” Piniella said. ”But suddenly you’re 7-3, and everyone is displeased. It’s because we lost the last two, but so what? Arizona has good pitching. We didn’t muster much the last two days. Give them credit.”

For myself, the above comment not only reflected Piniella’s understanding of baseball, but more importantly, he’s beginning to know the mindset of Cubdom. Which would be enough to send most managers straight to the nearest watering hole - with a suitcase in hand and a plane ticket waiting at O’Hare.

But not Lou. Cause he know things.

He read us like a suicide squeeze before it happens, calling for the pitch-out before half of Chicago Cubs Nation began its long walk off the short pier. His comments were meant as much to lift us up as they were to talk us down.

Because Lou knows things. Like baseball is as much about match-ups and averages and odds. And Lou knows winning 19 of 26 games is about as good as it gets in baseball.

It was only a matter of time before Carlos Marmol’s stuff just wouldn’t be there one day. Or the bats in a lineup that includes afterthoughts when the season began would someday go cold.

Because that’s baseball. That’s life. And that’s the odds.

But Lou knows things.

I’m pretty sure he knows there’ll be days like the past weekend series against Arizona. And if I were a betting man, I’d guess that Piniella knows there’s even some good days ahead for the Chicago Cubs.


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