Chicago Cubs Baseball

Forget about the Curse of the Billy Goat. Steve Bartman and Alex Gonzalez? Long gone.

This is the second week of July and the Chicago Cubs are in the midst of a Central Division title race. The last time the Cubs and post-season play were mentioned as a possibility was 2005 before the mid-August crash.

That was then and this is now. And a look at today’s standings shows the Cubs a mere three games back in the loss column.

As real as a possibility Chicago’s Cubs can not only challenge and win the Central Division crown, is as real as the chances are that they don’t.

In my humble, long-distance view I see five reasons standings between the Chicago and a title. And it’s not the other National League Central Division teams - but themselves.

Here’s what I see the Cubs need to do to become more than contenders:

Power Outage

Who would have guessed that at this point of the season, the M and M’s - Mark DeRosa and Mike Fontenot - would have as many home runs as Derrek Lee and Cliff Floyd or more than Lee and Jacque Jones combined?

And the future of a power surge doesn’t look promising. Regardless of what Lee says, he hasn’t had the same stroke since the fractured wrist of a year ago. Jones is an enigma, while Floyd and Aramis Ramirez are both gimpy with ankle and knee injuries, respectively.

The homer has been a goner for the Cubs since the last Chicago homestand - or about 10 games ago. While the Cubs have been winning with strokes, not dingers, an offense needs balance. Of the current contending teams in the major leagues, only the Los Angeles teams - Angels and Dodgers - have fewer home runs than the Cubs.

Home runs don’t win championships. Ask the Cincinnati Reds or any one of a number of past Cub teams that have led the majors in homers and finished last in the division standings.

But home runs can be difference makers. There’s nothing like a three-run blast to blow a close game open or close the gap.

Where the difference maker comes from is anyone’s guess. But the Cubs need balance in order to remain in contention.

Starting Pitching

Through the first half of the season the Cubs have two consistent starters - Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. Counting Zambrano’s seven-inning masterpiece yesterday, the duo have combined for 19 of the Cubs’ 45 wins.

The good news is both look like they can give the Cubs the innings they need to stay in contention. But the remaining three pitchers in the starting rotation - Jason Marquis, Rich Hill and Sean Marshall - definitely will have to improve on their June and early July showings.

Marquis is notorious for his second-half collapses and Hill hasn’t won since sometime in May. The best bet for consistency looks to come from Marshall who matches up better than most as the Cubs fifth starter.

Relief Pitching

Inconsistency has been the bullpen’s trademark all season. Even though Cub relievers have played a positive role in the team’s recent surge, question marks still abound.

Set-up man/closer Bob Howry is as apt to give up four runs as he is to shut down the opposition. And while Will (Bad) Ohman and Michael (From Bad To) Wuertz have shown signs of improvement, I still grimace when either are expected to hold a lead.

Carlos Marmol has been nothing short of sensational and has my vote as closer if Ryan Dempster’s strained oblique continues to hamper his performance. With Hill’s struggles, Dempster as another right arm in the starting rotation might provide the consistency the starting rotation needs and provide less stress on his body than his current closer’s role.

Scott Eyre has become nothing more than an afterthought at this point. Which is why the Cubs need another reliable bullpen arm to keep any title hopes alive.

Leadership

This one has bothered me since the beginning of the season. Is there a strong enough personality on the team to take the team to the next level?

Is the mild-mannered, gentlemanly Lee the leader the Cubs need? Or is the fiery, temperamental Zambrano the answer?

When the Cubs hit a rough stretch - and they will between now and the end of September - who will be the steadying influence?

Your guess is as good as mine.

Management

Not Cubs’ skipper Lou Piniella. But the group at the top of the organizational heap. Will general manager Jim Hendry have the latitude to trade for purchase or that extra bat or arm? Or will Major League Baseball - or worse yet - the Cubs hierarchy keep the roster intact with the sale of the club imminent?

The Cubs are about two or three players away from not only a division title - but beyond. If Trader Jim can swing a sweet deal - say for a Ken Griffey Jr. - or find a reliable arm for the pitching staff, this not only can be an interesting year for the Cubs - it could be fun.